Ukraine’s Best Hope for Creating Lasting Security

U.S. access to Ukraine’s vast and largely untapped rare earths and other critical minerals in exchange for a “security shield” is the latest twist in the potential peace plan for the war in Ukraine. And it is picking up steam with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Kyiv and President Donald Trump stunning Europe by revealing he has already begun talks with Vladimir Putin.

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But while U.S. investment in this underdeveloped sector would be an important positive development for both Ukraine’s economy and immediate security, it’s only one element in an absent economic strategy that Ukraine needs to create a lasting security guarantee from future Russian aggression.

Read More: Inside Ukraine’s Effort to Win Over Donald Trump

In my former roles as Minister of Infrastructure and Deputy Prime Minister for Restoration, I’ve come to believe that the success of Ukraine’s recovery depends on strengthening its economy independent of the negotiation process and of political changes in Washington, Kyiv, or even Moscow. This is our own “homework” that no one else can do for us.

A strong, resilient economy would enable Ukraine to reinforce its military with cutting-edge technology, provide conditions for millions of refugees to return, and give our citizens a more stable and prosperous future—creating a genuine path for its integration with the E.U. In other words, economic reconstruction is not just about growth—it is about survival.

For years, various economic development or growth strategies have been proposed in Ukraine, but none have ever been fully implemented. The result has been a confusing climate for investors, global funds that are unwilling to extend credit to our country, and a government that often operates in a state of permanent chaos.

This isn’t the result of the war, but years of ever-changing political cycles and a lack of a cohesive, long-term economic vision that supersedes the agendas of different administrations. In 2016, when Royal Dutch Shell decided to leave Ukraine, they weren’t afraid of war but of our opaque legislative environment. Apparently, they compared working in Ukraine to taking a shot in the dark.

Russia’s full-scale invasion has upended the economy. While Ukraine has not been erased from the map like some expected, GDP has shrunk by about a third. We lost important metallurgical enterprises, parts of our agricultural land, and, most tragically, suffered an immense human toll due to Russia’s attacks, occupation, and the outflow of refugees. However, new opportunities have also emerged as Ukraine has gained full access to E.U. markets for its products and, perhaps ironically, took the place of Russian companies in many international markets.

Just as our country survived, Ukraine’s private sector has not been crushed by the Russian invasion. In fact, it has risen up to the challenge of war. Ukrainian businesses have played a key role in national defense by funding weapons logistics, veteran rehabilitation, and volunteer initiatives, all while generating tax revenue for the war effort. Many foreign companies have also fared well despite Russia’s attack. When I met with foreign business leaders at last year’s Munich Security Conference, many reported record profits in Ukraine despite the war.

Read More: Why Ukraine’s Wartime Economy Is a Surprising Success

Yet what remains urgently missing is a long-term vision that would guide our recovery and perhaps even go beyond it. In 2023, while working on reevaluating wartime logistics, Penny Pritzker, President Joe Biden’s special envoy for Ukraine’s reconstruction, asked me about our strategic priorities. I had to be honest with her: Ukraine lacked a unified, data-driven response.

That year, my team, in collaboration with the business community, partnered with Boston Consulting Group to develop a detailed 15-year economic roadmap based on over 100 interviews with government officials, international businesses, and experts. Our strategy highlighted eight priority sectors requiring reform and investment, including agriculture, defense, and the rare earth metals and critical minerals being discussed today. We concluded that transforming these sectors would see Ukraine’s economy grow 2.7-fold by 2040.

Last year, to address these sector-specific challenges, I started a think tank, We Build Ukraine, where we’ve been hosting workshops with businesses, financial institutions, Ukrainian government officials, and foreign leaders. We’ve concluded that key regulatory reform and business incentives would yield 80% of the desired economic impact. These steps would help build investor confidence and change Ukraine’s business reputation as unpredictable and corrupt. I know from direct experience that while corruption remains a persistent challenge, it isn’t insurmountable. When I led state-owned enterprises, targeted reforms proved transformative.

At Ukrainian Railways, for example, simply cutting out middlemen from fuel and electricity procurement saved $300 million in one year. Ukrainian ports were also in disarray when my team took charge in 2021: some faced massive wage debts, others teetered on bankruptcy. We replaced ineffective managers and brought in independent anti-corruption oversight. In just three years—despite war and relentless bombardments—these enterprises became profitable, paid off debts, and contributed hundreds of millions to the state budget.

If we can turn loss-making enterprises into profitable ones, we can transform an entire nation’s economy with the same disciplined approach. The only thing needed is determination.

Despite the odds, Ukraine has survived the biggest attack Europe has seen since the 1940s. When we think about possible scenarios for peace talks, which the Trump team is prioritizing, it is essential that Ukraine uses this a key moment to adopt a clear, long-term economic vision that remains consistent whoever is in charge in Kyiv or abroad.

I believe such a vision would help not just to attract foreign investors and unlock Ukraine’s true economic potential, but to help it mature into a nation that’s trusted, respected, and able to protect its sovereignty for generations to come.

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