The Meaning of Rodrigo Duterte’s Arrest

March 11 was a day of reckoning. Fresh off a plane at the Manila international airport, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was flanked and detained under an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity.

“This is deeply personal for me,” said former Philippine senator Leila de Lima, a Duterte critic since cleared of drug-related charges that jailed her for nearly seven years, in a statement. Randy delos Santos, the uncle of a teen killed in police anti-drug operations in Manila in August 2017, told the Associated Press that it was “a big, long-awaited day for justice.”

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Duterte had overseen a crackdown on illicit drugs for over two decades, first as mayor of Davao City and then as Philippine President from 2016 to 2022. The campaign led to as many as 30,000 deaths, most of them poor Filipinos.

Duterte’s arrest—and the incumbent Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Administration’s cooperation in it—also marks a turning point in the country’s politics.

“In the short term, this is the beginning of the end of the Duterte political dynasty,” says Jean Encinas-Franco, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines.

Dubbed “Asia’s Trump” for his rhetoric and unorthodox governance, Duterte was elected by a landslide almost a decade ago on the promise of a no-holds-barred crackdown on criminality. 

Upon taking office, he made true to his promise with his “war on drugs.” He also launched misogynistic tirades and clamped down on critics and press freedom.

While his crackdowns provoked outrage around the globe, Duterte and his brand of politics remained popular at home even after he left office. His daughter Sara Duterte-Carpio, riding on her family name, was elected Vice President in 2022 in a landslide victory alongside President Marcos Jr., himself the son of a former dictator who ruled the Philippines from 1965 to 1986.

But the two families fell out over a power struggle. A poll by WR Numero Research shows Duterte-Carpio as among the preferred candidates in presidential elections due in 2028, and the elder Duterte is seeking to reclaim his post as mayor of Davao City in midterm elections in May.

Meanwhile, the Duterte patriarch and President Marcos have traded drug use allegations. The former President has also accused his successor of veering the Philippines toward a dictatorship. Last November, Vice President Duterte-Carpio even publicly threatened to have Marcos assassinated.

The comments, as well as other allegations against Duterte-Carpio, prompted the House of Representatives, many of whom are Marcos allies, to impeach her last month.

Marcos had previously been vocal about refusing to cooperate with the ICC on its probe against Duterte. But in January, the Marcos Administration said it will “respond favorably” if the ICC seeks an Interpol arrest warrant.

Richard Heydarian, a Manila-based political analyst and senior lecturer at the University of the Philippines, tells TIME that the Marcos Administration has “cut off the head of the snake” with the arrest, after months of taking a less confrontational approach with the family. He adds that if Duterte is sent to The Hague, it would signal to Marcos’ allies in the Senate to expedite the impeachment proceedings against Duterte-Carpio.

For political analyst Antonio Contreras, it’s too early to say how Duterte’s arrest will affect the upcoming local elections or the looming presidential contest in 2028. But the “feeling of invincibility before that [Duterte] can no longer be held accountable,” he says, “is now being reversed.”

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