What a difference mere weeks have made in Canada. As the new year came and went, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his ruling Liberal Party, after nearly a decade in power, were trailing the Conservatives by 25 points—and facing electoral oblivion. An election was due by fall. It was looking like it might come earlier. The opposition parties in the House of Commons were working to bring down the government.
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Today, Canada is in the midst of that early election, but the circumstances are night and day. Trudeau is gone, replaced by former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney. And it was Carney himself who called a snap election for April 28. Most surprising of all, the Liberals are back up in the polls—and now favored to win. And it’s all thanks to a brash American in the Oval Office.
The last three months have embodied the old maxim that “events, dear boy, events” can upset the odds in short order. After Donald Trump was elected in November, Canadians became nervous about what his second term might mean for the country. That it wouldn’t be anything good was obvious as early as December when Trump bullied Trudeau, vowed sweeping tariffs, and even threatened annexation to make Canada the “cherished 51st state.”
With Trump’s taunts, the pressure on the highly unpopular Trudeau to step aside only grew. Canada needed a new, full-time and focused leader, with plenty of runway to deal with Trump and his bid for hemispheric dominance. So Trudeau announced his resignation on Jan. 6, the date Trump’s win was certified. A short Liberal leadership race followed in March, and Carney became Prime Minister. On Sunday, he called a snap election as voters are rallying around the flag and the incumbent Liberals, and against the Yankee menace.
The Liberal leadership race was centered on who could best deal with Trump and Canada’s (erstwhile?) ally. The general election will share that focus.
Canada has already shot back at the U.S. with reciprocal 25% tariffs. As a more sweeping round of Trump-induced duties looms, Carney is promising to fight back. It was hard to miss that his first foreign trip as Prime Minister was to France and the U.K., and Carney has said Canada won’t enter U.S. trade talks until Trump drops the 51st state talk—and show some respect.
Read More: How Canada Got Hooked on the U.S. Economy
That hard talk seems to be paying off in a land where voters are booing the U.S. national anthem, canceling vacations down south, and boycotting American goods.
It’s no accident that Carney launched his campaign on Sunday asking for a “strong, positive mandate” to deal with Trump not long after announcing a review of Canada’s plan to purchase F-35 fighter jets from the American arms manufacturer Lockheed Martin, a contract worth tens of billions. Canadians are furious at Trump and the U.S., and Carney is deftly seizing that anger—and leaving Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre in an awkward spot.
Poilievre has promised to stand up to Trump, arguing he’s a “tough guy” who can handle the U.S. President. But he’s seen by many as a “Trump-inspired” figure and the Liberals are working overtime to paint him as Maple MAGA. His base is typically Trump-friendly, even if most Canadians aren’t. Those same Canadians also see Carney’s Liberals as better suited to handle Trump, with 43% of them worried Poilievre would “roll over” to the President’s demands.
Unfortunately for Poilievre, Trump is the defining election issue given how crucial the bilateral relationship is to Canada’s prosperity and security.
Canada and the U.S. have a close defense relationship, with joint membership in NATO and NORAD, the continental aerospace command. The countries share national security information, though Trump has mused about kicking Canada out of the Five Eyes intelligence network.
Trade between the U.S. and Canada is worth over $1 trillion Canadian a year. That trade employs about 8 million Americans, and Canada is the leading export partner for 32 states—sending essential goods like potash, uranium, aluminum, and critical minerals. The U.S. auto sector is also intimately connected with Canada’s, and accounts for 3% of U.S. GDP. But the economic relationship is nonetheless lopsided, which makes Canada especially vulnerable.
With Canada’s economy, defense, and even sovereignty on the line, it’s no surprise that the election is about Trump and who can best handle him—and how. But it’s still a shock to witness the ultra-rapid revival of a Liberal Party that was written off as moribund not so long ago.
If the Liberals do indeed survive and hold on to power come April 28, they will have Trump to thank—but they’ll also have him to deal with.
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