An invasion by a neighbor with territorial ambitions. A wanton disregard of international law. A potential deal with Trump over critical minerals.
No, this is not Ukraine—we are describing the tragic events in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In 2021, Rwanda backed a rebellion in the Congo, the fifth time it has done so in the past 30 years. In January, the conflict sharply escalated, as Rwandan troops and their M23 rebel allies took control of Bukavu and Goma, the biggest city in eastern Congo. The two border cities are home to 3 million people.
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Much like how Russia has justified the occupation of Donbas, Rwanda claims to be protecting an ethnic minority—in this case, the Tutsi community, which lives in both countries. And, as with Russian President Vladimir Putin, his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame, himself a Tutsi, claims his country has existential security concerns. Both reasons have been exaggerated by Rwanda.
The crisis in the Congo has displaced 700,000 people since the beginning of the year and killed thousands. Humanitarian organizations are struggling to feed and give shelter to those in need now that USAID has cut much of the $800 million it provides to the Congo, which had amounted to 70% of the country’s entire aid budget. The crisis also threatens the stability of the government in the Congolese capital Kinshasa, as well as in Burundi, which has sent troops to help the Congo. If we don’t act, this crisis could engulf central Africa.
In contrast to Ukraine, the international community did little to address the crisis in the Congo until a month ago. For three years, the U.K. and the E.U. have actually increased aid to Rwanda despite its backing of the M23. The U.S. continued to remain Rwanda’s largest donor. The small, developing country home to 14 million people has figured out how to make itself useful, even indispensable to Western powers. It has sent troops to northern Mozambique, where a jihadist insurgency has threatened major French and Italian gas projects, and it has controversially offered to host asylum seekers from the U.K. and Denmark.
And yet, the West has enormous leverage. While Rwanda has diversified its revenues—including by boosting its mineral exports to over $1 billion annually, most of which experts think comes from the Congo—it needs to maintain its reputation among foreign donors.
In 2012, when Rwanda backed the same M23 rebels, the Obama Administration was critical in bringing a quick end to the crisis by cutting aid and sending a senior diplomat to help broker a peace deal. While the U.S. has cut aid and sanctioned senior Rwandan officials this time as well, there is much more it could do: impose visa bans, issue business and travel advisories, and pressure the World Bank to suspend development projects.
The private sector also has a role to play. Unwittingly, soccer teams PSG, Arsenal, and Bayern Munich are participating in sportswashing by promoting “Visit Rwanda” on their jerseys and in their stadiums. Celebrities have visited too over the past three years—among them Kevin Hart, Idris Elba, Ellen DeGeneres, and Danai Gurira—many taking pictures with President Kagame. More recently, two weeks after the M23 attack on Goma and Bukavu, John Legend performed in Kigali. (In response to the backlash that followed, he said: “I don’t believe that we should punish the people of Rwanda and punish the people of other countries when we disagree with their leaders.”)
Pressure on Rwanda could produce a short-term solution to the crisis in the Congo. Belgium, Rwanda’s former colonial ruler, cut ties on Monday with the country over its incursion in the Congo. The E.U. also announced sanctions the same day against Rwanda for its incursion in eastern Congo and plundering its mineral wealth.
The hope is that this and other pressure could first lead to a ceasefire, forcing Rwandan troops and the M23 to withdraw from eastern Congo, and then a deal with the M23 rebels that does not jeopardize Congolese sovereignty. Kagame and Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi held direct talks in Qatar on Tuesday and called for an “immediate ceasefire” in eastern Congo, but it is unclear if M23 will heed the call after it backtracked from peace talks earlier this week.
Yet this Congolese groundhog day—with a new Rwandan-backed rebellion appearing once every few years—requires a longer term solution. It is impossible to ignore the persistent crisis of governance in the Congo.
A shambolic Congolese army of 130,000—supported by Burundians, local militias, and a regional force of South Africans, Malawians, and Tanzanians—was defeated by a joint Rwandan and M23 force of around 10,000 to 14,000. Opportunistic Congolese politicians and preachers have amplified hate speech against the Congolese Tutsi community, from which most M23 leaders come. In many ways, Kinshasa’s enemy is itself.
Congolese leaders have a tendency for invective and to blame all their ills on Rwanda. But Congo’s leaders will also need to start looking inwards. The ongoing crackdown on the opposition and Tshisekedi’s bid to change the constitution to stay in power beyond term limits, has pushed some opponents into the arms of the M23 and Rwanda. The state’s neglect of the security services has also allowed corruption and confusion to fester in the army and police. In the long-term—and the holy grail of Congolese protest movements going back generations—the Congolese people must address the crippling crisis of corruption and misgovernance, in particular in the security forces.
Finally, the main challenge will be to transform a conflict economy into one of peace. In the past, Congo, Rwanda, and Burundi lived together in peace. In the 1970s and 80s, for example, they formed a regional bank that invested in agriculture, as well as an electricity company. Even throughout this last bout of fighting, officials from all three countries have continued to staff a hydroelectric dam on their joint border. Today, billions of dollars in gold, tin, and tantalum are smuggled out to Congo’s neighbors every year. Here too, countries could collaborate on refining and tracing these minerals, turning minerals into an engine of growth instead of a conflict curse.
