Is college really worth it? It’s a fair question, especially when directed at university presidents like me. Rising tuition, the crushing burden of student loans, and the inauspicious job offers some students receive upon graduation prompt the question, for good reasons, and fuel the arguments among those who think that forgoing college is the smarter financial decision. According to the National Center for Education Statistics, the average cost for attending a bachelor’s degree program was $9,800 at a public institution and $40,700 for private nonprofit institutions during the 2022-2023 academic year.
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But what if the most expensive decision is not going to college at all?
Let’s step back for a moment and consider the long arc of a career. Yes, bypassing college can sound pretty appealing at 18-years-old, especially when the option is to step straight into a job or a short training course with a clear job at the end of the program, collecting a paycheck immediately, and never taking on student debt. Plus, you’ll have four additional years of earnings under your belt. At first blush, you’re off to a way better start.
But college isn’t just about the next four years. It’s about the next 40, 50, or even 60 years for today’s teens.
Over their adult years, college graduates consistently out-earn their peers who hold high school diplomas, creating an earnings gap that compounds over time. According to a 2021 study by the Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, college graduates earn a median of $2.8 million over their lifetimes, 75% more than those with just a high school degree who earn closer to $1.6 million over their lifetimes. In this way, a decision that seemed smart at 18 can become a money loser in the years ahead.
Financial security should be a factor young people consider when making decisions about their future—and so is job security. Most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data suggest that the unemployment rate for workers with only a high school diploma is 4.2% while the unemployment rate for those with a bachelor’s degree is just 2.5%. And at the onset of COVID pandemic in April 2020, the BLS reported that unemployment among high school graduates spiked to 17.7%—more than double the 8.4% unemployment rate for college graduates. In a world of increasing unknowns, the inoculating effects of a college degree can be the difference between weathering a storm versus being swept away by it.
Many young people who decided not to attend college dream of starting their own businesses. Of course, there are many successful tech entrepreneurs who have come to represent this decision to not complete college—from Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, to Mark Zuckerberg and Jack Dorsey. These are all extremely successful individuals. But for every Mark Zuckerberg who strikes gold, there are countless others who are left panning in the creek.
In addition to financial security and job stability, colleges can also offer built-in networks that span industries, disciplines, areas of expertise, as well as generations. Classmates, professors, alumni, and staff can become vital sources of lifelong guidance and support. And these relationships can also serve as mentors, sources of persuasive references, future employers, and even potential collaborators.
Networks forged through a multi-year college experience should be a launchpad to financial success, social mobility, and a better future, shaping the trajectory of a person’s career and life in ways that a job straight out of high school can’t replicate. In fact, research by Harvard economist Raj Chetty found that children from lower-income families who attend colleges with higher-income peers are significantly more likely to rise to the top 20% of the income ladder than their low-income counterparts, who either don’t attend colleges with higher-income students or who decide to forgo college altogether.
Tied inextricably to personal and professional success is well-being, which colleges promote in ways that reverberate long after graduation. Recent research paints a compelling picture of how higher education influences both mental and physical health. The Department of Health and Human Services found that college graduates have better self-reported health and are less prone to heart disease, high blood pressure, diabetes, and anxiety. One reason for these improved health outcomes could be because college graduates tend to have better access to healthcare. These and other findings suggest that forgoing college has ramifications beyond lost earnings and diminished job stability—ramifications that could have serious implications for physical health, mental well-being, and overall life satisfaction.
Of course, college isn’t the right choice for everyone and for some, college—especially at 18-years-old—may not be the best path to eventual success given individual circumstances, interests, and self-created or available career opportunities. And from a societal perspective, we certainly need individuals who are trained in many other non-college professions to keep our economy and communities humming. But before making a quick decision about attending college, let’s not succumb to short-sightedness, because there’s a very long tail of impacts from such a decision.
The true returns from a college degree compound in earnings and also in overall well-being, not just over years but over decades. Trading long-term gains for short-term impact may seem like the expedient choice, except for one lingering question: What if the most expensive decision is not going to college at all?
